Vladimir Putin and Modi to Meet During Politically Treacherous Times for Russia and New Delhi

The last time the Russian President visited the South Asian nation four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the pandemic, centered around discussions on strategic and defense cooperation between the two nations.

Months later, the large-scale military offensive of Ukraine would transform the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that era came before a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by inflammatory statements and the imposition of heavy import duties.

"Against this backdrop, the importance of Putin's journey to engage with the Indian PM cannot be overstated, serving as a signal of resilient relations and a defiance of external pressure," analysts note.

A Pivotal Moment for Both Nations

The high-level meeting takes place at a delicate moment. The Kremlin leader comes after rejecting latest peace proposals for Ukraine, confident due to claimed advances by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the primary importance of this visit is its very occurrence," commented a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to something resembling normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are even higher. The country navigates a challenging international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

The tightrope walk was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a joint opinion piece questioning Russia's peace efforts. This elicited a firm response from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership dates back to the Cold War era and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's top defense supplier. This alliance was largely tolerated by the West until a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. However, recently failed peace efforts, accusations mounted, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"Consequently, India has returned to its traditional posture of 'hedging'," explained a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is waiting to see how the situation unfolds."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "China continues to be the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has depended on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst stated.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in the past few years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: purchase enough Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but not become overly reliant that a sudden cutoff would leave it vulnerable," the analyst concluded.

The Oil Question

Increased trade relations is expected to be a major topic. The Russian leader has publicly emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "higher plane", in spite of Western sanctions.

The issue of energy imports remains pivotal. While the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. Simultaneously, India has agreed to increase imports of US energy.

A Russian official admitted "hurdles" in economic cooperation but insisted it would proceed without major disruption. The official minimized the impact of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "minor" and "temporary" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

As talks proceed, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be addressed mainly through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader can speak to all parties, India lacks the necessary leverage to alter the course of the war," the analyst noted. "Aside from urging negotiations, its ability to make a difference is limited."

Ultimately, despite the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the partnership is at its core one of "pragmatic strategic interest," driven by national interest in a volatile world.