Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
